An Insider’s Guide To Intrade Prediction Markets

Intrade Prediction Markets: An Insider’s Guide

intrade prediction markets

At its core Intrade is an online trading exchange where visitors speculate on the outcome of current events through Intrade prediction markets technology.  As the world’s leading prediction market exchange, Intrade has developed a wide range of enthusiastic fans, ranging all the way from part-time investors all the way to the finest academic university’s that analyze Intrade’s ever growing database of predictions data in behavioral economics and sociology related coursework. With election season in full swing you are bound to hear a lot from Intrade so let’s take a look inside…

Intrade Prediction Markets: How Does It Work?

The Intrade Prediction Markets allows traders to place wagers on the likelihood of a specific event occurring. The specific events available for trade on the Intrade platform vary widely, we discuss in detail below. As an exchange, prices are determined by other prediction market participants.  Prices change in accordance with supply and demand. However one thing to keep in mind, prices are bounded between $0.00 and $10.00 and at expiration the result can only be $0 or $10. Think of it as a percentage with $0.00 representing 0% and $10.00 representing 100% probability. The best way to illustrate how the Intrade Prediction Markets works is by looking at a specific example…

For instance as of January 11, 2012, the current market for Barak Obama to be re-elected as President of the United States is $5.07 / $5.12. This means if you think Obama will be re-elected in November you would pay $5.12 per share, with a maximum profit of $4.88 ($10.00-$5.12) should he be re-elected.

On the other hand, if you think Obama will not be re-elected you could sell shares at $5.07, which would also represent your maximum profit. Your max loss would be $4.93 in this scenario ($10.00-$5.07).  A screenshot of the “Intrade Prediction Markets” trading screen is included below:

Intrade Prediction MarketsWhile I mention the maximum profits and loss for each scenario for illustration purposes, the main advantage of trading on the Intrade Prediction Markets platform is the ability to trade in and out of your predictions prior to expiration. For instance say President Obama destroys the Republican nominee in one of the debates and the market for his re-election moved significantly higher, say $7.03 / $7.10. If you had purchased shares for $5.12 you could then turnaround and sell them at the new higher price of $7.03. This way you lock in a profit well before Election Day. Things change seemingly every day of a political campaign, giving you ample opportunity to trade in and out of positions. With no trading fees or commissions feel free to trade away.

The Intrade website offers this summary for how to trade on the Intrade Prediction Markets platform:

Intrade Review

Intrade Prediction Markets: The Events

The Intrade Prediction Markets Platform offers 13 event categories for traders to wager on including:

  • Business
  • Climate & Weather
  • Construction & Engineering
  • Current Events
  • Entertainment
  • Financial
  • Foreign Affairs
  • Legal
  • Politics
  • Real Estate
  • Scientific
  • Social & Civil
  • Technologies

Being in the midst of election season the political markets are seeing the most traffic though Entertainment should start heating up with the multitude of Awards shows schedule early in the year. Do note the financial section is pretty thin. For those looking to predict specific financial markets or individual companies I highly recommend using one of the online binary options brokers highlighted on this site. The platforms offer sizeable returns (up to 700%!) for high/low predictions for expiries as low as 60-seconds all the way up to a month. TradesRush is one of the more popular platforms in which to predict the financial markets. TradesRush offers new traders deposit bonuses of 50% to 100%, so stop by and collect your bonus today by clicking on the link below:

TradesRush Financial Markets Prediction Platform & Bonus

Intrade Prediction Markets: Costs / Fees

As mentioned previously, Intrade does not charge traders per trade/transaction however they do chare a $4.99 monthly fee. The fee is debited from your account on the first day of each month no matter when you join, meaning if you join Intrade on the 2nd of the month you will not be charged the $4.99 fee until the following month. If you do not have any money in your account the $4.99 fee will be waived.

Intrade Prediction Markets: Deposits & Withdrawals

There are 3 ways to deposit money into your Intrade account: Debit/Credit card, check, or bank wire.  Unfortunately debit/credit cards issued by US banks are not allowed. Withdrawals can only be transacted via check and bank wire.

Check Out The Brand New Intrade Prediction Markets Platform

Intrade Prediction Markets

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